The FIFA World Cup 2014 has moved into the semi-final stage, pitting the final four teams left—Brazil, Germany, Argentina and the Netherlands—against one another for a spot in the coveted Maracana final.
Here we take a look at the second tie on offer: The Oranje against La Albiceleste.
Netherlands
Predicting what Louis van Gaal does tactically is like trying to work out what you'll be doing exactly five years from now: Close to impossible, with the distinct possibility of being wrong.
So far he's utilised three clear formations during the competition—the 3-5-2, the 4-3-3 and the 3-4-3—to gain numerical or positional parity with his opposition, and Argentina's formation could well dictate how he shapes his XI.
Van Gaal likes to match up evens in midfield, meaning a 3-4-3 (with two central midfielders) played against Costa Rica's 4-5-1, a 3-5-2 (with three CMs) played against Spain and a 4-3-3 (with three CMs) played against Australia's 4-2-3-1.
The smart money is on three at the back, but which nuance is unclear. Ron Vlaar is struggling with a knee injury but a direct replacement can be found in the form of Joel Veltman.
Arjen Robben: Love Him or Hate Him, He Has Starred at This World Cup
As Owen Gibson wrote for The Guardian:
While so much of the attention has, perhaps by design, been on the manager Louis van Gaal's tactics and tics, it is Robben who has powered the side to the semi-finals.The statistics – three man of the match awards, three goals, one assist and that last-minute penalty against Mexico that highlighted the best and worst of his game (it was both a foul and a dive) – don't tell the whole story. From Holland's first game, that 5-1 evisceration of Spain that signalled not only the end of an era but also sent confidence coursing through Oranje veins, to their nervy, attritional victory over Costa Rica on penalties, he has been Van Gaal's one constant.
For defenders, it's not as simple as saying "force him to his right" and job well done. Frankly, I'm not sure I have the answer, which proves my point even more. Had we found the solution to stop his penetrating runs, we would not be having this discussion.
Why do we love him? Well, Robben's insatiable thirst for goal and darting runs catch the eye immediately. Every defender shudders at the thought of being tasked with standing in his way when he picks up the ball in the attacking half. Still, he finds a way through more often than not. Whether it's the first or the last minute, his body is a mechanism with an unyielding instinct to sustain relentless pressure as he bears down on the opposition.
He is the sort of player, who, in any moment, can break you. As a defender, it's frightening to know that he always wants to take you on. You may succeed once or twice, but the thought of dealing with him for 90 minutes must be extremely intimidating.
As you all know, you can do well defensively for 90 minutes, but the one time he beats you, you have then failed at your job. Robben, like Messi, Ronaldo and other great players, can continue to fail until they get it right. Robben is never satisfied until he gets what he wants the majority of the time.
Argentina
Alejandro Sabella has some difficult decisions to make regarding squad selection, with Sergio Aguero returning from injury and Marcos Rojo returning from suspension.
Jose Maria Basanta was a very able stand-in at left-back, but Rojo—one of la Albiceleste's few impressive players not named Lionel Messi so far this tournament—will likely take his place. Aguero's fitness levels are known only to Sabella, but he'll be tempted to risk him given the poor form of Ezequiel Lavezzi.
Angel Di Maria's absence due to a thigh problem is this week's blow, and in order to combat his absence, Sabella will need to change the game plan again. We could see Enzo Perez from the start, we could see Maxi Rodriguez instead.
Tomorrow we find out whether #ARG can cope without Di Maria. For all the focus on Messi, they looked bereft of ideas without ADM vs. #BEL
— Christopher Atkins (@ChrisAtkins_) July 8, 2014
Whatever the XI, the focus will be on assisting and helping Messi in his quest to carry the Albiceleste to the final at the Maracana.
"Leo has rescued us in a few matches but we can’t just rely on him," Javier Mascherano told reporters ahead of the game (h/t London Evening Standard). "The team should be there to support him."
As for Messi, noted football journalist Jonathan Wilson made the following observation in the wake of Argentina’s 1-0 win over Belgium in the last eight.
The paradox of Messi: he makes Argentina a better side defensively because nobody dares attack them.
— Jonathan Wilson (@jonawils) July 5, 2014
In terms of ultimate output, the pair are very similar. Per 90 minutes on the field, Robben has produced 0.56 goals and 0.19 assists for a total goal contribution of 0.75; Messi’s figures are slightly better at 0.79 goals and 0.20 assists for a total goal contribution of 0.99.
Include the match-winning penalty Robben won against Mexico in the round of 16 as an assist and his overall goal contribution jumps to 0.94 per 90 minutes—pretty much on par with Messi.
They are also remarkably alike when it comes to the percentage of their teams’ efforts on goal in which they have been involved.
Messi has taken or set up 41.11 per cent of Argentina’s shots during the World Cup, while Robben has taken or assisted 41.89 per cent of Netherlands’ efforts. These are high figures, but it would be unfair to conclude that either country is a one-man team.
Daley Blind, Dirk Kuyt and Robin van Persie have impressed for Netherlands, while Angel Di Maria, Ezequiel Garay and Javier Mascherano have all played an important role in Argentina’s progression to the final four.
There can, however, be no doubt that Robben and Messi are the ones their teams look to when attacking inspiration is required. This is particularly the case with Argentina and Messi.
“We know he is our main player, our captain, the best player in the world,” Mascherano said recently, as reported by Fox Sports. “Every time we recover the ball we try to pass to him as he is the best player we have in the team and he will score goals.”
Indeed, Argentina coach Alejandro Sabella has looked painfully short on alternative plans throughout the tournament.
2 Tactical Clashes
1. Drawing the Dutch Out
The Netherlands will be happy to surrender possession and sit off, but the Argentines have to stop them from doing so.
In losing Di Maria, Sabella has lost his second-best dribbling threat available. Di Maria, when on form, can be key to breaking sides down and breaking between the lines, taking the focus off Messi and causing problems from two different flanks rather than just one.
To combat their blunted efficiency in breaking down low blocks, the Dutch must be drawn out into space much how the Belgians were: Put seven behind the ball, relinquish possession and create space for yourself on the counter-attack.
Messi with space to dribble and pass into, Aguero with space to surge into and Lavezzi with room to wiggle; that's what will win La Albiceleste this tactical matchup.
2. Robben (and Depay?) Out-balls
This matchup is the ultimate test of just how willing Louis van Gaal is to attack Argentina, and which formation he deploys will signal his true intents.
He'll be laughing if the opposition play 4-4-2: It means he can match up two vs. two in central midfield and deploy two wide men as out-balls for counter-attacks.
Rojo, despite playing centre-back for Sporting, loves to get forward and Pablo Zabaleta is almost solely responsible for holding the width on the right.
If LVG is able to slot Memphis Depay and Arjen Robben into the space left behind them—a la Karim Benzema behind Stephan Lichtsteiner—he can attack following one pass out of defence at blistering pace.
Source: Bleacher Report
-----------------Compiled by Dennis Nicholas---------------------------------------------
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